{"id":28170,"date":"2024-04-13T21:29:00","date_gmt":"2024-04-13T21:29:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/test.otpor.media\/index.php\/2024\/04\/13\/https-otpor-media-general-sir-richard-barrons-postoji-ozbiljan-rizik-da-ukrajina-ove-godine-izgubi-rat\/"},"modified":"2024-04-13T21:29:00","modified_gmt":"2024-04-13T21:29:00","slug":"https-otpor-media-general-sir-richard-barrons-postoji-ozbiljan-rizik-da-ukrajina-ove-godine-izgubi-rat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/otpor.media\/?p=28170","title":{"rendered":"General Sir Richard Barrons – Postoji “ozbiljan rizik” da Ukrajina ove godine izgubi rat"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Biv\u0161i zapovjednik Zapovjedni\u0161tva oru\u017eanih snaga Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva upozorio je da bi se Ukrajina mogla suo\u010diti s porazom ove godine. General Sir Richard Barrons rekao je za BBC da postoji “ozbiljan rizik” da Ukrajina ove godine izgubi rat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Razlog je \u0161to bi Ukrajina mogla osjetiti da ne mo\u017ee pobijediti. A kada do\u0111e do te to\u010dke, za \u0161to \u0107e se ljudi vi\u0161e htjeti boriti i umrijeti, samo da bi obranili neobranjivo?” rekao je.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukrajina jo\u0161 nije na toj to\u010dki. Ali njezinim snagama ponestaje streljiva, vojnika i protuzra\u010dne obrane. Njezina toliko najavljivana protuofenziva pro\u0161le godine nije uspjela otjerati Ruse s tla koje su zauzeli i sada se Moskva sprema za ljetnu ofenzivu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kako \u0107e to izgledati i koji su vjerojatni strate\u0161ki ciljevi?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Oblik ruske ofenzive koja \u0107e uslijediti prili\u010dno je jasan”, ka\u017ee general Barrons. “Vidimo Rusiju kako se bori na prvoj crti boji\u0161nice, koriste\u0107i prednost pet prema jedan u topni\u0161tvu, streljivu i vi\u0161ak ljudi poja\u010dan kori\u0161tenjem novog oru\u017eja”, ka\u017ee. To uklju\u010duje FAB klizne bombe, prilago\u0111ene “glupe bombe” iz sovjetske ere s GPS navo\u0111enjem i 1500 kg eksploziva, koje uni\u0161tavaju ukrajinsku obranu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“U nekom trenutku ovog ljeta o\u010dekujemo veliku rusku ofenzivu. Cilj ne\u0107e biti ostvariti samo male teritorijalne dobitke ve\u0107 potpuno razbiti ukrajinsku obranu. A ako se to dogodi, izlo\u017eili bismo se opasnosti da se ruske snage probiju i zatim eksploatiraju podru\u010dja Ukrajine gdje ih ukrajinske oru\u017eane snage ne mogu zaustaviti”, ka\u017ee general.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pro\u0161le godine Rusi su to\u010dno znali gdje \u0107e Ukrajina vjerojatno napasti – iz smjera Zapori\u017eje prema jugu i Azovskom moru. Planirali su, u skladu s tim, i uspje\u0161no zaustaviti napredovanje Ukrajine. Sada Rusija gomila trupe i tjera Kijev da naga\u0111a gdje \u0107e napasti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Jedan od izazova s kojima se Ukrajinci suo\u010davaju jest da Rusi mogu birati gdje \u0107e anga\u017eirati svoje snage. Linija fronte je vrlo duga i Ukrajinci moraju biti u stanju obraniti je cijelu”, ka\u017ee dr. Jack Watling, vi\u0161i znanstveni suradnik u institutu Royal United Services (Rusi).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Ukrajinska vojska \u0107e izgubiti neka podru\u010dja. Pitanje je koliko \u0107e i koja naseljena sredi\u0161ta biti pogo\u0111ena”, dodaje. Sasvim je mogu\u0107e da Glavni sto\u017eer Rusije tek treba utvrditi koji \u0107e smjer ozna\u010diti kao glavni.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Harkiv<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Harkiv je sigurno jedna od meta”, ka\u017ee Watling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kao drugi najve\u0107i grad Ukrajine, smje\u0161ten opasno blizu ruske granice, Harkiv je primamljiv cilj za Moskvu. Trenuta\u010dno je svakodnevno pod napadima, a Ukrajina nije u stanju postaviti dovoljno protuzra\u010dne obrane.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Mislim da \u0107e ofenziva ove godine imati proboj iz Donbasa kao prvi cilj”, dodaje general Barrons. “I njihovo oko \u0107e biti usmjereno na Harkiv, koji je 29 km od ruske granice i bio bi glavna nagrada”, dodaje.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mo\u017ee li Ukrajina i dalje funkcionirati kao odr\u017eiv entitet ako Harkiv padne? Da, ka\u017eu analiti\u010dari, ali to bi bio katastrofalan udarac i za njezin moral i za njezino gospodarstvo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Donbas<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Podru\u010dje isto\u010dne Ukrajine poznato kao Donbas u ratu je od 2014. godine, kada su se separatisti koje podr\u017eava Moskva proglasili “narodnim republikama”. Godine 2022. Rusija je nezakonito anektirala dvije oblasti ili pokrajine Donbasa, Donjeck i Luhansk. Ondje se odvijala ve\u0107ina kopnenih borbi u proteklih 18 mjeseci.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukrajina je ulo\u017eila goleme napore, i u ljudstvu i u resursima, u poku\u0161aju da zadr\u017ei prvo grad Bahmut, a zatim i Avdijivku. U poku\u0161aju je izgubila oba grada, kao i neke od svojih najboljih borbenih trupa. Ali Moskva ima mnogo vi\u0161e vojnika koje tek treba ubaciti u borbu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zapovjednik ameri\u010dkih snaga u Europi, general Christopher Cavoli, upozorio je da \u0107e, osim ako SAD po\u017euri poslati znatno vi\u0161e oru\u017eja i streljiva u Ukrajinu, njihove snage biti nadja\u010dane na bojnom polju deset prema jedan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Taktika, vodstvo i oprema ruske vojske mo\u017eda su inferiorni u odnosu na Ukrajinu, ali imaju toliku broj\u010danu nadmo\u0107, posebice topni\u0161tvo, da \u0107e u najmanju ruku nastaviti potiskivati ukrajinske snage natrag u smjeru zapada, zauzimaju\u0107i selo za selom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zapori\u017eja<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I ovo je primamljiva nagrada za Moskvu. Grad na jugu Ukrajine s vi\u0161e od 700.000 stanovnika (u mirnodopsko doba) nalazi se opasno blizu ruskih boji\u0161nica. To je pomalo trn u oku Rusiji s obzirom na to da je glavni grad istoimene oblasti koju je Rusija nezakonito anektirala, a grad jo\u0161 uvijek slobodno \u017eivi u ukrajinskim rukama.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zastra\u0161uju\u0107a obrana koju je Rusija izgradila ju\u017eno od Zapori\u017eje pro\u0161le godine, u o\u010dekivanju ukrajinskog napada, sada bi mogla zakomplicirati rusko napredovanje.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Takozvana Surovikinova linija, koja se sastoji od trostrukih slojeva obrane, pro\u0161arana je najve\u0107im, najgu\u0161\u0107e zbijenim minskim poljem na svijetu. Rusija bi to mogla djelomi\u010dno demontirati, ali bi njezine pripreme vjerojatno bile otkrivene.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strate\u0161ki cilj Rusije ove godine mo\u017eda \u010dak i nije teritorijalni. To bi jednostavno moglo biti slamanje ukrajinskog borbenog duha i uvjeravanje zapadnih saveznika da je ovaj rat izgubljen slu\u010daj.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Watling vjeruje da je ruski cilj “poku\u0161ati stvoriti osje\u0107aj bezna\u0111a”. “Ova ruska ofenziva ne\u0107e odlu\u010dno okon\u010dati sukob, bez obzira na to \u0161to \u0107e i\u0107i s obje strane”, ka\u017ee on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Rat \u0107e se okrenuti u korist Rusije”<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Barrons je tako\u0111er skepti\u010dan da \u0107e Rusija, unato\u010d te\u0161koj situaciji u kojoj se Ukrajina sada nalazi, automatski vratiti svoju prednost odlu\u010duju\u0107im napredovanjem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cMislim da je najvjerojatniji ishod da \u0107e Rusija ostvariti dobitke, ali se ne\u0107e uspjeti probiti. Ne\u0107e imati snage koje su dovoljno velike ili dovoljno dobre da se probiju sve do rijeke Dnjepar\u2026 Ali rat \u0107e se okrenuti u korist Rusije.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jedno je sigurno: ruski predsjednik Vladimir Putin nema namjeru odustati od napada na Ukrajinu. On ra\u010duna na to da Zapad ne\u0107e uspjeti Ukrajinu opskrbiti s dovoljno sredstava da se obrani, pi\u0161e BBC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OTPOR.Media<\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Biv\u0161i zapovjednik Zapovjedni\u0161tva oru\u017eanih snaga Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva upozorio je da bi se Ukrajina mogla suo\u010diti s porazom ove godine. General Sir Richard Barrons rekao je za BBC da postoji “ozbiljan rizik” da Ukrajina ove godine izgubi rat. “Razlog je \u0161to bi Ukrajina mogla osjetiti da ne mo\u017ee pobijediti. A kada do\u0111e do te to\u010dke, za […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8326,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28170","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ww-iii"],"yoast_head":"\nGeneral Sir Richard Barrons - Postoji "ozbiljan rizik" da Ukrajina ove godine izgubi rat - OTPOR.Media<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/otpor.media\/?p=28170\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"hr_HR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"General Sir Richard Barrons - Postoji "ozbiljan rizik" da Ukrajina ove godine izgubi rat\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Biv\u0161i zapovjednik Zapovjedni\u0161tva oru\u017eanih snaga Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva upozorio je da bi se Ukrajina mogla suo\u010diti s porazom ove godine. General Sir Richard Barrons rekao je za BBC da postoji “ozbiljan rizik” da Ukrajina ove godine izgubi rat. “Razlog je \u0161to bi Ukrajina mogla osjetiti da ne mo\u017ee pobijediti. 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General Sir Richard Barrons rekao je za BBC da postoji “ozbiljan rizik” da Ukrajina ove godine izgubi rat. “Razlog je \u0161to bi Ukrajina mogla osjetiti da ne mo\u017ee pobijediti. 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